New Delhi– Veteran emerging markets investor Mark Mobius has said India will remain the leading growth story among developing economies and that China will not be able to surpass India’s momentum over the long term.
Mobius, who has allocated nearly 20 percent of his portfolio to India, pointed to the country’s strong domestic demand, ongoing government reforms, and entrepreneurial adaptability as key drivers. He acknowledged that U.S. tariffs and near-term volatility could affect some sectors, but argued that India’s structural strengths would keep it ahead of peers.
In an interview with the Economic Times, he said that exports of pharmaceuticals, gems, and apparel may face pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump’s 50 percent tariff, but Indian businesses are likely to adjust. “Indian entrepreneurs are very creative. I think they will be able to get around some of these problems,” Mobius said, adding that some firms could shift manufacturing to Africa.
He estimated that tariffs may trim 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points from India’s growth, but stressed the domestic market’s resilience. “Even if the growth estimate falls from 6 percent to 5.5 percent, it’s not a big issue,” he noted.
Mobius also argued that Washington should not single out India for Russian oil imports, pointing out that China is buying comparable volumes. He said lower global crude prices and negotiations between New Delhi and Washington could ease tensions.
He described the weaker rupee as a positive for exporters and said policy support would cushion the economy. “The Indian market looks healthy. The economy is still doing very well. Eventually, India and the U.S. will reach an agreement because this situation cannot last long,” he said.
The investor reiterated his view that India has the potential to become the world’s second-largest economy, citing its demographic advantage. “India now has a substantially larger population than China. It is now estimated that China’s population is actually 800 million or less, with an average age much higher than India’s 1.4 billion people,” he said.
In less than a decade, India has climbed from being the 11th-largest economy to the fourth largest globally. As of 2025, it ranks just behind the U.S., China, and Germany in total GDP. (Source: IANS)
