NEW DELHI, India — Trade between the United States and China has dropped to about 2 percent of global trade, down from 2.7 percent in 2024, according to a new report highlighting the continued economic decoupling between the world’s two largest economies.
The findings come from the DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026, released Thursday by logistics company DHL in partnership with the New York University Stern School of Business.
The report shows that while economic ties between Washington and Beijing are weakening, globalization overall remains resilient despite rising geopolitical tensions, tariffs and uncertainty in international trade policy.
Trade between the United States and China reached its peak in 2015, when it accounted for 3.6 percent of global trade. The share has steadily declined in recent years, falling to 2.7 percent in 2024 and further dropping to roughly 2 percent during the first three quarters of 2025, according to the study.
Cross-border investment flows between the two countries are even smaller, accounting for less than 1 percent of global business investment.
Despite the decline in U.S.-China trade, the report said overall global connectedness has remained stable. The global level of connectedness stood at around 25 percent in 2025, matching the record level recorded in 2022.
The index measures international flows of trade, capital, information and people on a scale from 0 to 100.
John Pearson, chief executive officer of DHL Express, said the findings demonstrate that companies and countries are continuing to maintain international ties even amid growing uncertainty.
He added that global cooperation remains essential to address major challenges such as poverty and climate change.
The report also found that global trade expanded more rapidly in 2025 than in any year since 2017, excluding the unusual fluctuations seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Much of the growth was driven by companies increasing shipments ahead of anticipated U.S. tariff increases and by rising demand for artificial intelligence-related products.
According to the World Trade Organization, AI-related goods accounted for about 42 percent of the growth in global goods trade during the first three quarters of 2025.
Looking ahead, the report expects global trade to continue expanding, though at a moderate pace. Goods trade is projected to grow at an average annual rate of about 2.6 percent through 2029, broadly in line with the pace seen over the past decade.
Steven A. Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalisation at NYU Stern, said political debates about globalization often appear more dramatic than the actual shifts occurring in global business flows. (Source: IANS)
