NEW DELHI— India’s commercial vehicle (CV) wholesale volumes are expected to see a modest recovery of 2–5 percent year-over-year in FY26, following subdued performance over the past two fiscal years, according to a report released Monday by CareEdge Ratings.
The medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV) segment is projected to grow by 4–6 percent in FY26, while the light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment is expected to post growth of 2–4 percent, the report said.
“The commercial vehicle industry is expected to experience moderate growth, with overall sales volume likely to improve by around 2–5 percent YoY in FY26,” said Arti Roy, Associate Director at CareEdge Ratings.
The expected recovery will be fueled by a combination of factors: increased infrastructure activity, improved rural sentiment following a forecast for a normal monsoon, better financing options driven by recent interest rate cuts, and continued fleet replacement—especially in the bus segment. The report also cited road tax concessions and the government’s vehicle scrappage policy as key drivers, along with the shift toward electric vehicles (EVs).
In FY25, growth remained muted across the sector. MHCV volumes rose just 1.2 percent, while LCV volumes slipped by 0.3 percent, due in part to weaker demand, an extended monsoon that delayed construction, and increased competition from the electric three-wheeler cargo market. Cautious lending by financial institutions also impacted small fleet operators, particularly in the LCV segment.
“The Indian CV industry had its peak in FY19, but after being hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, it appeared poised to surpass that high following strong rebounds in FY22 and FY23,” said Hardik Shah, Director at CareEdge Ratings.
Buses—accounting for roughly 20 percent of MHCV sales—showed strong growth in FY25, rising 21.6 percent. This was driven by a combination of factors, including government fleet modernization initiatives, a surge in demand for public transportation, and increasing adoption of electric buses. (Source: IANS)
