NEW DELHI — Tariff refunds tied to Indian exports to the United States could total between $10 billion and $12 billion, following a move by U.S. authorities to open a $166 billion claims process for duties imposed during the Trump administration that were later struck down in court, according to a report released Tuesday.
The refund window, which opened April 20, allows only U.S.-based importers to file claims, leaving Indian exporters without a direct legal pathway to recover the duties.
As a result, Indian companies must rely on negotiations with their American buyers if they hope to receive any share of the refunds. Exporters may need to pursue rebate-sharing arrangements, adjust pricing, or renegotiate future contract terms, the Global Trade Research Initiative said in its report.
While the estimated refund pool presents a significant opportunity, analysts cautioned that actual gains for Indian exporters will depend largely on their bargaining power and ability to revisit commercial agreements with U.S. partners.
Sectors such as textiles and apparel, engineering goods, and chemicals are expected to account for a large share of the India-linked refunds, as they were among the hardest hit when tariffs were sharply increased.
The refund process is being administered by U.S. Customs and Border Protection through its Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries system, known as CAPE.
In the initial phase, claims can be filed for unliquidated entries — import filings still under customs review — as well as entries finalized within the past 80 days. Importers with older finalized entries will have to wait for later phases to submit claims.
U.S. customs officials told a federal judge that businesses eligible in the first phase alone are owed approximately $127 billion in refunds.
The process is expected to be lengthy, with importers required to submit detailed documentation through the CAPE portal, including customs filings, tariff payment histories, and product classifications tied to eligible entries.
Officials said the agency is handling about 53 million entries filed by roughly 330,000 importers. Even after claims are approved, refunds could take between 60 and 90 days to be disbursed.
Although the U.S. government has since imposed newer tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, the court ruling invalidated earlier collections, preventing them from being upheld retroactively.
For many businesses, the launch of the claims portal marks the beginning of what is likely to be a prolonged reimbursement process. (Source: IANS)
