New Delhi— India’s economy is projected to grow by 7.2% in the fourth quarter of the 2024-25 fiscal year, driven by improvements in the agriculture sector and a sharp rise in net indirect tax collections, according to a report by Barclays.
“We believe agricultural sector growth is likely to improve year-over-year, as indicated by advance estimates showing record-high wheat production,” said Aastha Gudwani, Chief India Economist at Barclays. “As a result, we estimate agriculture Gross Value Added (GVA) growth at 5.8% in Q4, up slightly from 5.6% in Q3.”
Supporting this projection, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan announced on Monday that India’s foodgrain output for 2024-25 has increased by over 10.6 million tonnes, reaching 166.39 million tonnes — a 6.83% rise compared to the previous year.
“The rabi crop production in 2023-24 was 160 million tonnes. This has now grown to 164.53 million tonnes,” the minister said.
Barclays attributes its 7.2% GDP growth forecast for Q4 to the significant increase in net indirect taxes, and estimates real GDP growth for the full fiscal year at 6.4%. Strong indirect tax revenues reflect robust performance in both the manufacturing and services sectors.
Earlier this month, Moody’s Ratings projected India’s GDP to grow at 6.3% in 2025, expecting further momentum in 2026 with growth reaching 6.5%. This aligns with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) outlook, which positions India as the only major global economy expected to maintain growth above 6% in 2025.
However, these estimates fall short of the National Statistical Office’s second advance estimate, which places GDP growth at 6.5% for FY25, implying a Q4 growth rate of 7.6%.
Economists across the board estimate Q4 growth between 6.4% and 7.2%, while full-year growth is expected to range between 6.3% and 6.4%.
According to ICRA, GDP is likely to expand by 6.9% year-over-year in Q4 FY25, with overall annual growth at 6.3%. “Private consumption and investment activity trends remained uneven in the fourth quarter, partly due to tariff-related uncertainty,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist and Head of Research & Outreach at ICRA. “While services exports continued their double-digit growth, merchandise exports contracted year-over-year after expanding in Q3.”
The official data for Q4 and the full FY25 will be released by the government on May 30. (Source: IANS)
