New Delhi — India’s shift to electric mobility is expected to follow a markedly different path from the United States and Europe because of the country’s diverse mix of two-wheelers, auto-rickshaws, buses, trains and passenger cars, according to an analysis published by The Policy Edge.
While electric vehicle adoption in Western markets is largely centered on passenger cars, India’s transition is expected to unfold at different speeds across multiple forms of transportation.
The report said the first phase of electrification will likely be driven by two-wheelers and auto-rickshaws, which account for a large share of everyday transportation. As those markets mature, demand is expected to shift increasingly toward replacing older vehicles rather than expanding the total fleet.
Passenger cars, however, are projected to keep growing well beyond 2050. As their numbers rise, they are expected to account for a larger share of battery demand and consumption of critical minerals.
That could make India’s EV transition increasingly resource-intensive even as overall vehicle growth begins to stabilize.
The analysis said demand for slow chargers could increase six- to ninefold by 2030, driven largely by electric two- and three-wheelers. Demand for fast chargers, increasingly tied to passenger cars, is expected to continue growing for decades.
The report said charging infrastructure being planned today will need to account for the country’s future vehicle mix rather than simply respond to current demand.
India’s growing electric vehicle fleet is also expected to sharply increase demand for critical minerals including lithium, copper, nickel and cobalt.
Compared with recent global production levels, India’s future lithium demand could more than double, while copper demand could approach three times current production benchmarks and nickel demand could reach roughly two-and-a-half times those levels, according to the analysis. Cobalt demand could also approach its corresponding global production benchmark.
The report said those projections underscore the potential for India to become a major source of global demand for critical minerals as its transportation system electrifies.
It called for policymakers to move beyond encouraging EV adoption and develop a broader mineral strategy.
Such a strategy would include securing long-term supplies through partnerships with resource-rich countries, supply agreements and participation in overseas mining projects.
The report also recommended reducing reliance on newly extracted minerals by extending battery life, improving recycling and recovery of materials from used batteries, and accelerating adoption of alternative battery technologies.
A third priority would be expanding India’s domestic capabilities in mineral refining and processing, along with advanced battery manufacturing. The report said doing so could allow India to capture more value from the clean energy economy while strengthening the resilience of its industrial supply chain. (Source: IANS)
