MUMBAI, India — Global copper prices have risen nearly 40% in FY26, reaching about $13,000 per tonne by January 2026, driven by persistent supply disruptions, declining ore grades, and inventory imbalances across major exchanges, according to a new industry report.
Tight supply conditions outside the United States, combined with uncertainty surrounding potential tariff actions, are expected to keep copper prices elevated in the first half of FY27, with prices projected to trade in the $11,000 to $12,000 per tonne range. However, analysts cautioned that downside risks to prices cannot be ruled out in FY27.
The copper market is expected to remain in a structural deficit through calendar years 2025 and 2026, as growth in mine supply continues to lag demand. This imbalance has been a key factor supporting the recent price rally.
Trade-related uncertainty in the U.S. has reshaped global inventory flows. Concerns over possible tariff actions have led to significant stock build-ups on U.S. exchanges, while inventories on international exchanges have declined, tightening availability in markets outside the U.S.
Stocks in U.S.-registered warehouses rose sharply to around 498 kilotonnes by December 2025, up from about 98 kilotonnes in January 2025, reflecting accelerated imports of refined copper ahead of potential tariff measures under review for mid-2026.
Ongoing disruptions at copper mines have further constrained supply, contributing to the sharp rise in prices in recent months. At the same time, elevated prices are beginning to raise concerns about demand moderation, particularly in price-sensitive end-use segments.
Signs of demand sensitivity have emerged in China, where softening physical premiums suggest that higher prices may lead to delayed purchases or substitution in the near term.
In India, domestic copper consumption is expected to grow at an annual rate of 10% to 12% over the next two years, although this represents a moderation from the 14% to 15% growth recorded during the first seven months of FY26.
Over the medium term, demand growth in India is increasingly expected to be driven by energy transition-related applications, including renewable energy projects, power transmission networks, data centers, and electric vehicles.
The report said upstream copper producers are likely to benefit from sustained high prices, supporting operating profitability, while downstream smelting and refining companies may face margin pressure due to higher input costs. (Source: IANS)
