NEW DELHI — The global airline industry is expected to generate $1.053 trillion in total revenue in 2026, a 4.5 per cent increase from the $1.008 trillion projected for 2025, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said on Tuesday.
Return on invested capital (ROIC) is forecast to hold steady at 6.8 per cent in 2026, the same as 2025. IATA noted that despite reduced debt levels and improving operating profitability, ROIC will remain below the industry’s weighted average cost of capital, estimated at 8.2 per cent for 2026.
Airlines’ combined net profit is projected to reach $41 billion next year, up from the revised $39.5 billion estimate for 2025. While profit levels would set a new industry record, the net profit margin is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9 per cent. Net profit per passenger is forecast to decline to $7.90, down from the 2023 high of $8.50.
Operating profit across the industry is expected to rise more than 8 per cent to $72.8 billion in 2026, up from $67.0 billion in 2025, representing a net operating margin of 6.9 per cent, compared with 6.6 per cent expected for 2025.
Passenger traffic is projected to increase 4.4 per cent, reaching 5.2 billion travelers in 2026. Load factors are expected to continue hitting record levels, with airlines’ seat occupancy forecast to reach 83.8 per cent next year. Cargo volumes are also expected to climb, reaching 71.6 million tonnes, up 2.4 per cent from 2025.
“Airlines are expected to generate a 3.9 per cent net margin and a $41 billion profit in 2026. That’s extremely welcome news considering the headwinds that the industry faces—rising costs from bottlenecks in the aerospace supply chain, geopolitical conflict, sluggish global trade, and growing regulatory burdens among them,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
IATA added that new aircraft deliveries began accelerating in late 2025 and are expected to pick up further in 2026. However, the association warned that demand for aircraft and engines is likely to exceed supply.
“Demand is forecast to outstrip the availability of aircraft and engines. The normalisation of the structural mismatch between airline requirements and production capacity is unlikely before 2031–2034 due to irreversible losses on deliveries over the past five years and a record-high order backlog,” IATA said. (Source: IANS)
