NEW DELHI — India’s annual trade surplus with the United States could cross $90 billion following the proposed bilateral trade deal, with no significant adverse impact expected from the recent U.S.-Bangladesh agreement, according to an SBI Research report released on Thursday.
The report estimates that India could generate at least an additional $45 billion in annual trade surplus with the U.S., equivalent to about 1.1 percent of gross domestic product, along with foreign exchange savings of nearly $3 billion.
According to the report, the U.S. trade agreement, coming on the heels of broader trade arrangements with the European Union and the United Kingdom, places India in a strong strategic position. It said Indian exporters stand to gain substantially without conceding ground on sensitive domestic sectors.
“As per our preliminary estimates, Indian exporters may increase their exports of the top 15 items to the U.S. by $97 billion in a year. Including the remaining items, the potential may easily cross the $100 billion mark,” said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser at State Bank of India.
The report also noted that the U.S. has annual import potential of more than $50 billion from India, excluding services. India’s trade surplus with the U.S. stood at $40.9 billion in FY25 and $26 billion in FY26 for the April–December period, and is projected to rise sharply once the trade deal is implemented.
Addressing concerns around the U.S.-Bangladesh trade agreement, the report said the U.S. currently imports about $7.5 billion worth of textiles each from India and Bangladesh, though the product mix differs between the two countries. The U.S. imports more non-knitted apparel from Bangladesh, while imports from India are skewed toward other made-up textile products.
Under the U.S.-Bangladesh deal, tariffs on Bangladeshi goods have been reduced to 19 percent. However, a provision allowing certain quantities of textile and apparel imports from Bangladesh at zero reciprocal tariffs—linked to the use of U.S.-sourced cotton and man-made fiber inputs—has raised concerns about potential competitiveness pressures on Indian exporters.
The SBI report said such concerns may be overstated, as sourcing raw materials from the U.S. would be more expensive than importing from India, limiting any erosion of India’s competitive advantage. It estimated that even if U.S. cotton replaced 10 percent of India’s cotton exports and 2 percent of man-made fiber exports to Bangladesh, the potential loss for India would be limited to around $1 billion.
The report also pointed out that India’s recent trade agreement with the European Union has opened access to a $260 billion textile market with zero duty on textile imports from India, providing a significant offset and reinforcing India’s export growth outlook. (Source: IANS)
