New Delhi — India is expected to surpass China in its share of global gross domestic product measured by purchasing power parity by 2060, according to a report by the World Inequality Lab.
The Paris School of Economics-based research group said China’s contribution to global GDP is likely to decline in the second half of the 21st century as demographic pressures weigh on long-term growth.
China’s share of world GDP, currently around 20% in PPP terms, is expected to remain substantial through the 2030s. However, the report said the country’s rapidly falling population will affect its longer-term economic performance.
“China’s population share is falling very fast, from 23 per cent of the world population in 1945 to about 17 per cent in 2025 and less than 8 per cent in 2100,” report said.
As a result, China’s share of world GDP is projected to decline in the second half of the century and be overtaken by India around 2060, according to the report.
Purchasing power parity measures how much a unit of a country’s currency can buy in another country, allowing comparisons of economic output based on relative purchasing power.
The report said the global economy is likely to remain multipolar in the 21st century. It said China is unlikely to reach the dominant position held by the United States around 1950, when the U.S. accounted for as much as 35% to 40% of global GDP.
Europe held a similar position around 1900 to 1910, with about 40% to 45% of global GDP, the report noted.
According to the latest World Economic Outlook, India’s GDP is expected to rise to about $4.15 trillion in 2026 from $3.92 trillion in 2025. The United Kingdom’s GDP is projected to increase to $4.27 trillion in 2026 from $4 trillion in 2025.
The U.S. economy is expected to reach $32.38 trillion in 2026, while China’s GDP is projected at $20.85 trillion. (Source: IANS)
