New Delhi — Gold prices could climb as high as $5,600 per ounce and silver could reach $120 per ounce by the end of 2026 under a bullish scenario, according to a new report from Monarch PMS.
The firm assigned a 25% probability to its bull case, which projects gold trading between $5,000 and $5,600 per ounce and silver between $95 and $120 per ounce.
The scenario assumes a weakening U.S. labor market prompts the Federal Reserve to ease interest rates, while real yields decline. It also depends on renewed institutional investment in precious metals and a return of physical supply tightness in the silver market.
Under Monarch PMS’s base case, which carries a 55% probability, gold is expected to trade between $4,300 and $4,700 per ounce by the end of 2026, while silver is projected at $70 to $85 per ounce.
That outlook assumes the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged through September, energy prices normalize, real yields stabilize and central banks continue purchasing about 250 metric tons of gold per quarter.
The report assigned a 20% probability to its bearish scenario, which would see gold fall to between $3,400 and $3,900 per ounce and silver trade between $45 and $55 per ounce.
That outcome could materialize if the Fed raises rates in September, oil prices decline further and disinflation develops into broader weakness in demand.
“The principal headwind is the 10-year TIPS real yield, which stands at 2.41 per cent and remains a genuine competing return to a zero-coupon asset such as gold,” the report said.
Monarch PMS said silver’s underlying supply-and-demand fundamentals remain supportive, citing a sixth consecutive annual market deficit, the withdrawal of 762 million ounces from above-ground inventories since 2021 and mine supply that has remained broadly flat for a decade.
“Silver’s supply-demand fundamentals also remain supportive, with a sixth consecutive annual deficit, 762 million ounces drawn from above-ground stocks since 2021 and mine supply broadly flat for a decade,” the report said.
The firm said tighter physical supplies could magnify price gains if demand strengthens, noting that paper claims on the COMEX are about 5.6 times registered physical inventory.
The gold-silver ratio has also risen from about 46 at silver’s January peak to roughly 69 currently, close to its 21st-century average, according to the report.
Monarch PMS said the shift indicates that silver has surrendered much of its earlier outperformance and now appears relatively less expensive compared with gold. (Source: IANS)
