New Delhi — Smartphone shipments in India are expected to decline about 12 percent year over year during the 2026 festive season, even as the overall market value rises roughly 5 percent, according to Counterpoint Research.
The research firm said higher memory costs are pushing up smartphone prices, while consumers who do make purchases are increasingly opting for higher-value devices through financing and trade-in programs.
Rising costs for DRAM and NAND memory have already led to several rounds of smartphone price increases, weighing on demand and extending replacement cycles.
Counterpoint said foot traffic at brick-and-mortar retailers is expected to increase during the festive season, but actual purchases will depend heavily on financing options, trade-in offers and promotional incentives.
With cost pressures limiting manufacturers’ ability to offer steep discounts, the festive season is expected to rely less on aggressive price cuts and more on affordability-focused strategies, including financing, trade-ins, optimized product portfolios and value-oriented offerings.
“The key challenge this festive season will be the size of the active consumer pool. Higher smartphone prices are likely to keep many consumers on the sidelines, with discretionary upgrades being deferred and purchases increasingly driven by replacement needs,” Counterpoint Research Director Tarun Pathak said.
At the same time, consumers already planning to buy a new smartphone may view the festive season as an attractive purchasing window because continued increases in memory costs could result in further price hikes.
Counterpoint expects buyers to be more selective, focusing on the right combination of financing, trade-in benefits and overall value rather than upgrading solely because of festive discounts.
“This will make the festive season more competitive for brands, as they will be competing for a smaller pool of active buyers,” Pathak said.
Consumer activity is expected to increase across both online and physical retail channels during the festive period, with traditional retail stores likely to see stronger foot traffic, the report said. (Source: IANS)
