NEW DELHI — Efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump to pressure India into altering its Russian oil imports through tariff threats ultimately failed, according to a new academic paper by an Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Udaipur professor.
The study, authored by Professor Kunal Kamal Kumar and published in the journal Third World Quarterly, examines the 2025 standoff between the United States and India over New Delhi’s continued purchase of discounted Russian crude. It concludes that while tariffs were deployed as a strategic tool, they did not achieve Washington’s intended outcome.
According to the paper, the U.S. sought to influence India’s energy policy by threatening steep tariffs on Indian exports. However, India viewed the issue as central to its national interests, including energy security, economic stability, and inflation management. Access to lower-cost crude, the study notes, has broad implications for transportation costs, industrial activity, and household expenses.
The research finds that India’s response was grounded in longstanding principles of sovereignty and strategic autonomy. Decisions related to energy procurement, the paper argues, were made based on domestic priorities rather than external pressure.
The stance also reflects the broader foreign policy approach of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, under which India has sought to maintain relationships with multiple global powers while avoiding alignment that could compromise its national interests.
The paper further highlights the economic limitations of tariff-based pressure. While tariffs are often framed as punitive measures against trading partners, they can also have domestic consequences for the country imposing them. Higher import costs, supply chain disruptions, and increased consumer prices can impact the initiating economy, in this case the United States.
As a result, the study characterizes tariffs as a blunt instrument—capable of generating pressure but not necessarily compliance. In some cases, such measures may even reinforce resistance, encourage alternative trade arrangements, and strengthen the targeted country’s resolve.
Beyond the immediate dispute, the paper situates the episode within a broader global shift. Emerging economies such as India are increasingly asserting their policy independence, particularly when core economic interests are at stake, challenging traditional assumptions about the effectiveness of Western economic leverage.
The study concludes that India’s continued purchase of discounted Russian oil was a pragmatic decision shaped by domestic economic considerations rather than geopolitical signaling. It underscores that tariff pressure, while impactful, has clear limits—especially when confronted with a country prioritizing energy security and strategic autonomy. (Source: IANS)
